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SUPER BOWL XL
Pittsburgh (-4, 47) vs. Seattle
Play Pittsburgh minus the points
Sure you have already heard more than enough questioning how Pittsburgh, a #6 seed can be a 4 pt. favorite over Seattle, the NFC’s #1 seed. Yes, it is very rare, and Seattle definitely possesses some pedigree for a Super Bowl underdog, fresh of off B2B double digit playoff wins. It’s not like Seattle came out of nowhere either, as this is their third straight postseason, and they actually won their division and hosted a playoff game last season as well. Yes, Pittsburgh is a media favorite and are going to receive more public money than the low profile Seahawks. And although I believe the public will push this line higher as gametime approaches, do not make the mistake and think this line is off based on playoff seeding. The Black and Gold absolutely deserve to be the favorite here. They are off B2B dominant performances (forget the Indy final score, Pittsburgh beat the Colts all over the field) over two teams that are better than the Seahawks and would be a field goal (Denver) and a touchdown plus (Indianapolis) favorite over Seattle in this game. The most impressive part was that they did it ON THOSE TEAMS’ HOME FIELDS, with both vanquished opponents seemingly more well rested than the Steelers. As stated last issue, no team in the NFL has more wins the last two seasons combined than Pittsburgh. The Seahawks on the other hand, got to beat up on two road weary teams, and benefited form Carolina’s injury situation. Popular thought is that Homgrem rates the sideline edge over Cowher, but it is a minimal edge at that, and Pittsburgh has a very sharp staff. Steeler DC Lebeau has shown his worth in these playoffs, as the Steel City defense has totally befuddled two very good, and more importantly, very different offenses. The extra week to prepare will certainly help Lebeau and the veteran Pittsburgh D get ready for a third style of offense.
Not surprisingly these two teams are extremely strong in the trenches, as much so as any teams in the NFL. On defense, Seattle’s 4 man front and Pittsburgh’s 3 man front are both extremely underrated, and will be interesting to see if the Steelers can get to Hassleback who has only been sacked 28 times including the playoffs. Pittsburgh led the NFL in sacks this season and Lebeau’s blitzes will no doubt be coming from everywhere. Very suprising that Pittsburgh is running for only 2.7ypr in these playoffs, but I’ll write that off to the fact that they have gotten out to huge leads in both games and did not have to do much offensively after that. Seattle’s run D is very tough on paper (89 ypg, 3.5 ypr), but they played an especially weak slate of running teams during the regular season, and in this last two weeks cruised out to a nice sized lead over a beat up Washington offensive line, and a Carolina team who by the 2nd quarter had no running backs left. In misleading home wins against Dallas and New York this season, Seattle allowed over 160 yds. rushing in each game. That could be a problem against Pittsburgh’s road grading offensive line. Pittsburgh’s run D (85 ypg and 3.5 ypr) has been a strength the last couple of seasons, and is especially strong up the middle with NT Hampton and LB Farrior. Both secondaries are plus units, and Pittsburgh’s 5.9 yppass unit is very impressive considering the slate of passing offenses they have played against (Cincy twice, New England, Indy twice). The onus will be on these two ball-hawking secondaries to force a mistake out of 2 QB’s that have combined for a 51/20 ratio this season! In fact, Seattle QB Hassleback hasn’t thrown an INT in 5 games, a streak any handicapper would love to have on his side. [/B]
Man to man, top to bottom, there are no real weaknesses in either of these teams. However, Pittsburgh has played the tougher schedule, and what they have done in these playoffs cannot be understated. The Seahawks played only 4 regular season games against teams that ended up in the playoffs, and in one of those games, Indy rested more starters than they played. They do not have a quality road win all year. In the postseason, they had home field on their side as well as numerous technical advantages that have proven very favorable for past playoff teams as well. Pittsburgh played 6 games against regular season playoff teams, plus won at playoff quality San Diego, who would be favored or over Seattle (and all except 3-4 other NFL teams) on a neutral field. Pittsburgh won impressively in many roles that playoff teams usually lose, and lose badly at that. This is a special team. Yes, they could “bounce” (horse racing term) off of two monster performances, and bye weeks in the midst of huge winning streaks are not always a good thing. However, they have proven more against better opposition and on the road than has Seattle, and in all reality, probably could have used a week off, as they have not had a bye since week 4 (long time) and were coming out of Denver’s altitude. If you need a little technical support, the team who allows less yards/game on average is 27-12 SU in the Super Bowl, and the SU winner of the big game is 25-4$. Pittsburgh’s defense is 21ypg better than Seattle’s, and they are the stronger team here. Yeah I’m from the Burgh, call me a homer if you want…[/B]PITTSBURGH 30-20
SUPER BOWL XL
Pittsburgh (-4, 47) vs. Seattle
Play Pittsburgh minus the points
Sure you have already heard more than enough questioning how Pittsburgh, a #6 seed can be a 4 pt. favorite over Seattle, the NFC’s #1 seed. Yes, it is very rare, and Seattle definitely possesses some pedigree for a Super Bowl underdog, fresh of off B2B double digit playoff wins. It’s not like Seattle came out of nowhere either, as this is their third straight postseason, and they actually won their division and hosted a playoff game last season as well. Yes, Pittsburgh is a media favorite and are going to receive more public money than the low profile Seahawks. And although I believe the public will push this line higher as gametime approaches, do not make the mistake and think this line is off based on playoff seeding. The Black and Gold absolutely deserve to be the favorite here. They are off B2B dominant performances (forget the Indy final score, Pittsburgh beat the Colts all over the field) over two teams that are better than the Seahawks and would be a field goal (Denver) and a touchdown plus (Indianapolis) favorite over Seattle in this game. The most impressive part was that they did it ON THOSE TEAMS’ HOME FIELDS, with both vanquished opponents seemingly more well rested than the Steelers. As stated last issue, no team in the NFL has more wins the last two seasons combined than Pittsburgh. The Seahawks on the other hand, got to beat up on two road weary teams, and benefited form Carolina’s injury situation. Popular thought is that Homgrem rates the sideline edge over Cowher, but it is a minimal edge at that, and Pittsburgh has a very sharp staff. Steeler DC Lebeau has shown his worth in these playoffs, as the Steel City defense has totally befuddled two very good, and more importantly, very different offenses. The extra week to prepare will certainly help Lebeau and the veteran Pittsburgh D get ready for a third style of offense.
Not surprisingly these two teams are extremely strong in the trenches, as much so as any teams in the NFL. On defense, Seattle’s 4 man front and Pittsburgh’s 3 man front are both extremely underrated, and will be interesting to see if the Steelers can get to Hassleback who has only been sacked 28 times including the playoffs. Pittsburgh led the NFL in sacks this season and Lebeau’s blitzes will no doubt be coming from everywhere. Very suprising that Pittsburgh is running for only 2.7ypr in these playoffs, but I’ll write that off to the fact that they have gotten out to huge leads in both games and did not have to do much offensively after that. Seattle’s run D is very tough on paper (89 ypg, 3.5 ypr), but they played an especially weak slate of running teams during the regular season, and in this last two weeks cruised out to a nice sized lead over a beat up Washington offensive line, and a Carolina team who by the 2nd quarter had no running backs left. In misleading home wins against Dallas and New York this season, Seattle allowed over 160 yds. rushing in each game. That could be a problem against Pittsburgh’s road grading offensive line. Pittsburgh’s run D (85 ypg and 3.5 ypr) has been a strength the last couple of seasons, and is especially strong up the middle with NT Hampton and LB Farrior. Both secondaries are plus units, and Pittsburgh’s 5.9 yppass unit is very impressive considering the slate of passing offenses they have played against (Cincy twice, New England, Indy twice). The onus will be on these two ball-hawking secondaries to force a mistake out of 2 QB’s that have combined for a 51/20 ratio this season! In fact, Seattle QB Hassleback hasn’t thrown an INT in 5 games, a streak any handicapper would love to have on his side. [/B]
Man to man, top to bottom, there are no real weaknesses in either of these teams. However, Pittsburgh has played the tougher schedule, and what they have done in these playoffs cannot be understated. The Seahawks played only 4 regular season games against teams that ended up in the playoffs, and in one of those games, Indy rested more starters than they played. They do not have a quality road win all year. In the postseason, they had home field on their side as well as numerous technical advantages that have proven very favorable for past playoff teams as well. Pittsburgh played 6 games against regular season playoff teams, plus won at playoff quality San Diego, who would be favored or over Seattle (and all except 3-4 other NFL teams) on a neutral field. Pittsburgh won impressively in many roles that playoff teams usually lose, and lose badly at that. This is a special team. Yes, they could “bounce” (horse racing term) off of two monster performances, and bye weeks in the midst of huge winning streaks are not always a good thing. However, they have proven more against better opposition and on the road than has Seattle, and in all reality, probably could have used a week off, as they have not had a bye since week 4 (long time) and were coming out of Denver’s altitude. If you need a little technical support, the team who allows less yards/game on average is 27-12 SU in the Super Bowl, and the SU winner of the big game is 25-4$. Pittsburgh’s defense is 21ypg better than Seattle’s, and they are the stronger team here. Yeah I’m from the Burgh, call me a homer if you want…[/B]PITTSBURGH 30-20
